Constraints, and challenges of value capture in the AI race

There are a couple of podcasts I would like to highlight today. First, Acquired interviewed Sierra’s co-founders: Bret Taylor (who is currently Chair of OpenAI board and former Salesforce co-CEO) and Clay Bavor (who was at Google for 18+ years). They have an interesting vantage point; they both made

Union Pacific: Chasing the Transcontinental Dream

You can listen to this Deep Dive here Note: I first published my Deep Dive on CSX in July 2023. The introduction and industry overview section basically remain pretty relevant today for Union Pacific as well, so I have copied (and edited a couple of things here and there) those

Global Payments, Tax Shenanigans

A programming note: I will publish my Deep Dive on Union Pacific (ticker: UNP) tomorrow. Following Union Pacific, the next Deep Dive will be on ASML. I also wanted to remind you that after switching to a more topical discussion format for the “Never Sell” podcast (see here), I will

Market Bubble Talk, Frozen Housing Market Implications

Ever since I started investing in the US in 2018, I have consistently heard about valuation being in “bubble” territory. Early 2023 was perhaps the only time I can recall the bubble talk was a bit subdued, but then again, a recession in 2023 was thought to be on the

Amazon's Ambition in Groceries: Part 1

Back in 2023, Terry Smith from Fundsmith wrote the following as their rationale to exit their position in Amazon (emphasis mine): Relatively new CEO Andy Jassy enunciated some principles of investment which investment projects had to have, namely: 1. Be big and capable of delivering good returns on capital. 2.

Tyler Technologies, Portfolio Change

I have published 61 Deep Dives over the last five years. Obviously, that’s a lot to keep track for one person. However, given that I already spent a month studying each of these businesses, it usually doesn’t take too long for me to get up to speed on

Cursor's Conundrum

I don’t quite follow private companies closely. OpenAI and Anthropic are perhaps the only exceptions; I had to make the exception because they are simply too big to ignore and likely will have profound impact on how AI shapes the broader tech industry in the next 5-10 years. Cursor

Beyond the "Search" Box

Anecdotally, we have all been hearing some version of this in the last few months, at least on twitter: “After I started using ChatGPT, my Google search usage went down a LOT!” While Google bears increasingly depict a visceral visualization of Google increasingly being replaced by ChatGPT, Google search bull

Maravai 2Q'25 Update

I cannot recall a company’s stock going up 30% after management decided to withdraw its previously shared guidance. Of course, despite the 30% pop after Q2 earnings, most shareholders likely feel like the below meme! There are, however, good reasons why the stock reacted like that. I will share

Golden age of Digital Ads, LLM P&L

Golden age of Digital Ads Last month, some researchers at Meta published a very interesting paper that highlighted Meta’s ability to monetize LLMs through its core advertising platform. Meta management sort of alluded to some of these during earnings calls, but this paper really drove the point home for