Pricing "The Compute Theory of Everything", Texas Instruments Hitting Inflection Point

Believe it or not, the iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) was essentially flat on the year as of March 30…less than four weeks ago. Since then, semiconductor stocks appear to have chugged something with serious kick: the sector is up 47% YTD(!!), and given Intel's print last night,

Tesla's Terafab Dream

Tesla had their earnings yesterday, but given the company trades at ~226x NTM EV/EBIT multiple, it is bit of a waste of time to spend time dissecting their existing business. Ultimately, Tesla has become a moonshot bet on several projects that currently do not contribute materially to their numbers.

Danaher 1Q'26 Update

Danaher had another somewhat uneventful quarter. Looking at Danaher’s numbers every quarter is a stark reminder just how anemic the growth has proved to be for a company that enjoys some supposedly secular tailwinds. Even if you adjust for their spin-off of Environmental & Applied solutions segment in 2023,

Meta's Heterogeneous Fleet

Last month, I mentioned the following on Meta’s Chip Resilience: “…in an earlier blog post last year, Meta’s own engineers mentioned dealing with 5–6 hardware SKUs a year makes it harder to move workloads around and can create underutilization and software friction. From Meta’s own blog

Token Cost Conundrums

A couple of weeks ago, I highlighted a couple of pieces by Anjali Shrivastava who made the point that a token is not a fixed unit of cost. Today’s piece is a follow-up driving the point home that even though every model charges its API customers per token, tokens

The Counterintuitive Truths

In my investing career, there are perhaps couple of truths that felt counterintuitive to the extent that my first instinct was to fight it. Not only didn’t it feel right, what complicated it further is accepting these truths felt deeply uncomfortable. The first was the paradox of skill. As

Huang Isn't Planning to Wake Up a Loser

You may have already listened to Jensen Huang on the recent episode of Dwarkesh podcast. If you haven’t, I highly recommend you listen to the entire episode and not just the bits and pieces clips. This wasn’t the kind of episode that you want an AI to summarize

TSMC 1Q'26 Update

Yesterday’s TSMC earnings call was yet another confirmation that the AI momentum right now is one-way street: up and to the right! TSMC’s CEO C.C. Wei in his prepared remarks encapsulated the sentiment around AI (emphasis mine): “AI-related demand continues to be extremely robust. The shift from

ASML 1Q'26 Update

A new earnings season has arrived. If ASML’s earnings is any guide, be prepared to hear another quarter of “demand is outstripping supply” from all the players in the semi value chain. ASML’s CEO Christophe Fouquet started his prepared remarks with the following which set the tone: “…for

AI Economics in the East: Part 2

Yesterday, Flo Crivello tweeted something that caught my attention: We've tested new OSS models the moment they're released for a while at Lindy. Inference is our #1 cost by a lot (more than payroll) — cutting it by 2-5x would be transformative. Last year, OSS models were