Is Microsoft Over-Earning on OpenAI?
I have been trying to work out whether Microsoft is over-earning on its relationship with OpenAI.
Topic
MSFT
A collection of 25 issues
Hyperscalers vs AI Labs Debate, and the Moving AI Frontier
I thought I would cover Microsoft’s earnings today, but let me first respond to a tweet by SouthernValue and then I will share some thoughts on the state of AI models. I recommend you read his pushback to my yesterday’s piece before you read the rest.
Defending the Enterprise Castle from the Model Layer
If Microsoft’s lagging stock performance didn’t already cause a tinge of nervousness among its shareholders, Satya Nadella has been writing several pieces on X almost to clarify why Microsoft may be in a spot of bother in a world where model layer eventually becomes utterly dominant in capturing
Owning the Hill
Satya Nadella spent part of last weekend writing a think piece on X titled “A frontier without an ecosystem is not stable”.
The Honeymoon Phase of Capacity
Although I am yet to write any Deep Dive on any neocloud, I still like to pay close attention to what they are saying during their earnings calls. Both CoreWeave and Nebius had some interesting nuggets in their 1Q’26 call.
Digital Advertising Industry Snapshot 1Q'26
As I do after every quarter, let me share the snapshot of the overall digital advertising industry.
Microsoft FY 3Q'26: Multi-Model Mirage, Copilot Momentum
Programming Note: While I typically don’t write on company specific topics on Sunday, I’m making an exception during the earnings season. Microsoft’s own narrative about their future has evolved quite a bit following the ChatGPT moment in 2022.
The Fat-Tailed Economics of AI
Anthropic yesterday disclosed that their run-rate revenue has surpassed $30 Billion (I appreciate that unlike most people in tech, they didn’t call it ARR).
The Pendulum Between Intelligence and Knowledge
Over the last week or so, I have started noticing an interesting development that is worth highlighting. Let’s start with Microsoft’s announcement yesterday.
Nadella's Flip-Flop
There are perhaps few things in the current AI revolution that keeps my opinions grounded than watching Microsoft’s evolving position in the post-ChatGPT world.