Topic

MSFT

A collection of 18 issues

The Fat-Tailed Economics of AI

Anthropic yesterday disclosed that their run-rate revenue has surpassed $30 Billion (I appreciate that unlike most people in tech, they didn’t call it ARR). To contextualize how mind boggling the growth is, Anthropic ended 2025 with annual run rate of just $9 Billion which then shot to $19 Billion

The Pendulum Between Intelligence and Knowledge

Over the last week or so, I have started noticing an interesting development that is worth highlighting. Let’s start with Microsoft’s announcement yesterday. From Microsoft’s blog yesterday (emphasis mine): “Today, Researcher—Microsoft 365 Copilot’s deep research agent for work—takes a significant step forward. Designed to

Nadella's Flip-Flop

There are perhaps few things in the current AI revolution that keeps my opinions grounded than watching Microsoft’s evolving position in the post-ChatGPT world. It can be tempting to imagine investors just frenetically changing their labels to Microsoft as “AI winner” or “AI loser” every few months, but the

The Neocloud Trojan Horse

One of the most frequent pushbacks that I have received to my recent posts on AWS (see here, and here) is that the neoclouds are not a legitimate concern for hyperscalers such as AWS and Azure in the long term. Frankly speaking, I myself operated under this assumption for the

Notes from MS Conference: Meta, and Microsoft

Morgan Stanley (MS) had their annual TMT conference last week. Let me share some notes from Meta, and Microsoft’s sessions today. Meta Platforms Susan Li, CFO of Meta, attended the MS conference. As you can imagine, there were plenty of questions around ROIC on their capex. It turns out

The Long-term Reality of Hyperscalers: The Good, The Bad, and The Ugly Scenarios

In my “Lipstick on Frontier AI Pigs” piece, I wrote the following: Apart from ignoring the cost of training, another deeply questionable assumption Amodei makes in his argument is the gross margin for inference. In his “stylized” example, he assumes gross margin to be 67% which is directly responsible for

Microsoft in the "Dance Floor"

If you need any reminder how challenging active investing is, it can be humbling to know that if you bought Microsoft the day ChatGPT was launched, you would not only underperform QQQ but also underperform Alphabet (the very company the consensus assumed to be the primary “victim” of ChatGPT) by

The corporations of the future

Why do companies even exist? Why isn’t the economy just a vast collection of freelancers buying and selling services from each other in the open market? The answer, according to economist Ronald Coase, is “transaction costs.” These are the frictions and overhead involved in using the market. Every time

Nadella's truth

Satya means “Truth” and Nadella’s interview with Dwarkesh and Dylan Patel yesterday was indeed his way of disseminating his truth. It is one of the most interesting interviews I have listened to so far this year. What made the interview so compelling was that the interviewers did not tiptoe

The Great Decoupling of Labor and Capital

A programming note: I initially wanted to cover Microsoft’s earnings today, but I am changing the schedule a bit as I felt more inspired to write today’s piece. Almost two decades ago, Hewlett-Packard (HP) was the first tech company to exceed $100 Billion annual revenue threshold in 2007.