Topic

SPOT

A collection of 14 issues

Spotify Model Update

As mentioned yesterday, I am uploading my detailed Spotify model behind the paywall. The objective of this exercise is to gauge what metrics you need to underwrite to believe management’s long-term outlook provided for the business during the 2026 Investor Day. Subscribers get the daily journal and five+

Some Notes from Spotify's 2026 Investor Day

Spotify held its third Investor Day in May, eight years after the 2018 debut that asked whether it could win against the big tech walled gardens with their own music streaming offerings, and four years after the 2022 edition that asked whether it could ever be a real business with

Spotify 1Q'26: Recalibrating Expectations

I didn’t realize until yesterday that Spotify is actually currently approaching its second worst drawdown since becoming a public company as the stock has experienced a drawdown of ~44% so far from its peak in June, 2025! At the same time, now that I have been following this company

Spotify's Teachable Moments

Spotify launched its premium subscription plan back in 2009 and it took them nearly a decade to reach the milestone of 100 million premium subscribers back in 1Q’19. It took them 16 quarters to add the next 100 million premium subscribers. As they are set to reach 300 million

Music's AI Mess: Part 2

Just as I have highlighted in Music’s AI Mess, people seem to find it very hard to differentiate between AI-generated music and human-made music. Deezer/Ipsos recently did a survey in which they asked people to listen to three tracks and determine whether or not they were

Music's AI mess

Most of you may not have heard about Xania Monet, but “she” created a bit of a stir in the music industry last month when Hallwood Media, an independent music label company, signed a $3 million deal with her as her new track “How Was I Supposed To Know” reached

Spotify 4Q'23 Update

While not exactly Meta-like twists and turns, Spotify’s rise from the ashes of late 2022 perhaps slipped through many investors’ mind. The stock was at ~$70 in December, 2022. Today, it closed at $232. Before I get to my highlights from today’s call, let me first mention

Spotify 3Q'23 Update

Disclosure: I own shares of Spotify We walked into 2023 thinking we would do just over 20 million in net subscriber adds for the full year, but we're actually on track to deliver 30 million, which is a significant beat from where we thought we would be. I’

Spotify 2Q'23 Earnings Update

Disclosure: I own shares of Spotify Spotify stock has been one of the “winners” in 2023. A week ago, its YTD was +130%. With Generative AI, price increases, and potential margin improvement speculations, the stock crumbled after today’s earnings as it mostly appears to be very much “work-in-

Spotify 1Q'23 Earnings Update

Disclosure: I own shares of Spotify Over the last 6 months, Spotify stock has doubled. The business, however, remains largely work-in-progress with users accelerating but operating efficiency yet to reflect in the financials. Here are my notes from today’s earnings. Subscribe Users Spotify experienced its largest two