ASML

I know the semi stocks are getting shot at the market due to Anthropic’s ARR “miss” yesterday, but ASML’s 3Q’26 earnings was not the place to look to gauge any hiccup in AI.

Back in 1Q’26 call, ASML management was asked whether they are willing to flex their pricing power given how demand for chips seems to materially outweigh the supply. ASML management indicated to prefer more measured approach across different set of customers throughout the cycle.

A new earnings season has arrived. If ASML’s earnings is any guide, be prepared to hear another quarter of “demand is outstripping supply” from all the players in the semi value chain.

JP Morgan in its recent “2026 Eye on the Market Outlook” discussed four specific “What Could Go Wrong” for the market over the medium term. One that caught my attention is a section titled “China scales the moat with its own lithography-semiconductor technology…when, not if”.

In my ASML Deep Dive last month, I wrote about China’s gigantic and increasing contribution on ASML’s business: ASML revenue increased from €18 Billion in 2021 to €28 Billion in 2024.

You can listen to this Deep Dive here “It is perfectly normal to feel dizzy in this place. Not because of the sterile air, but because the mere thought of the extremely complex tools needed to make the chips destined for the phones of the future can make you lightheaded.