Topic

OpenAI

A collection of 32 issues

What You Have to Believe for OpenAI to Break Even in 2030

Programming Note: MBI Deep Dives will be off tomorrow, but I will be back on Friday. Yesterday I mentioned that I would publish my work on OpenAI today. Let me be clear that I have no idea what OpenAI will earn in 2030. But I wanted to get a good

The Left Tail of AI

AI is obviously a transformational technology, and anyone still dismissing it as a 'con' job is, ironically, likely pulling a con themselves. It’s hard not to feel that AI needs a better group of bears if we crave for a more diversity of opinions around AI. Over

Rethinking the Data Moat

I want to highlight a couple of pieces which I found to be quite intriguing. The first is Dwarkesh Patel’s conversation with Ryan Greenblatt, chief scientist at Redwood Research. Admittedly, while the conversation about whether automating AI research triggers recursive self-improvement was thought provoking, it was also quite

License to Chase the AI Frontier

While looking at Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index, I was quite struck by what they all have in common. The top model developers except one all have one thing in common: they are all currently founder-led companies. Alphabet is the sole exception. But even in Alphabet’s case, the company

Hyperscalers vs AI Labs Debate, and the Moving AI Frontier

I thought I would cover Microsoft’s earnings today, but let me first respond to a tweet by SouthernValue and then I will share some thoughts on the state of AI models. I recommend you read his pushback to my yesterday’s piece before you read the rest. I will

Defending the Enterprise Castle from the Model Layer

If Microsoft’s lagging stock performance didn’t already cause a tinge of nervousness among its shareholders, Satya Nadella has been writing several pieces on X almost to clarify why Microsoft may be in a spot of bother in a world where model layer eventually becomes utterly dominant in capturing

The Salience of Data

Let me begin with a thought experiment. Imagine you know nothing about OpenAI’s or Anthropic’s financials. No ARR figures, and no valuation marks from the latest round. Now add one more condition, and it may be less hypothetical than it sounds: assume every frontier lab has access to

Why Consumer AI Appears to be Lagging Enterprise

Last week, Mark Zuckerberg internally shared that AI agents haven’t progressed as fast as he hoped. While initially many interpreted this as Meta specific stumble on their agentic AI efforts in consumer, Alexandr Wang later clarified that Zuckerberg was talking about “the industry’s progress on agentic capabilities on

The ASIC-GPU Standoff

My friend Liberty recently highlighted an interesting paper from Google that goes through the evolution of TPUs. The objection to domain-specific silicon which might sound quite persuasive is the one about obsolescence: a chip may take two to three years to design, fabricate, and deploy, and AI moves fast

What's Embedded in OpenAI's Stock Price?

OpenAI is still a private company. They have recently submitted a “confidential S-1”, so we don’t know their financials for certain. However, Financial Times (and Ed Zitron) both recently claimed that they have come across OpenAI’s actual financials. Based on this report, I did an exercise to