MBI Deep Dives

MBI Deep Dives

Lipstick on Frontier AI "Pigs"

Dario Amodei recently did an interview with Dwarkesh Patel. While plenty of people found it rather reassuring for the “AI trade” to continue, I came away with much more consternation not only about Anthropic but also about anyone whose revenue or earnings is hinged on Anthropic spending ever increasing amount

Airbnb 4Q'25 Update

Programming Note: I will be traveling with my family for the next three days. Hence, I will take some time off, but will be back on Tuesday next week. Earnings for most internet or SaaS stocks these days appear to be just another event for these stocks to go further

Shopify's Miraculous Momentum

One of the most impressive things about Shopify is their ability to grow GMV in tandem with Amazon in recent quarters. Shopify was able to maintain such admirable momentum in 4Q’25. One of the key reasons for Shopify to be able to match Amazon’s growth is that their

Spotify's Teachable Moments

Spotify launched its premium subscription plan back in 2009 and it took them nearly a decade to reach the milestone of 100 million premium subscribers back in 1Q’19. It took them 16 quarters to add the next 100 million premium subscribers. As they are set to reach 300 million

Zuckerberg's Lens

10 years ago, Alphabet was the largest company among today’s big tech companies. (I’m going to ignore Tesla and Nvidia in this discussion as they are more recent additions to this list). Remarkably, these five companies were clustered quite close to each other back in 2016 as their

Amazon: 2026 Update

As I do it every year, following Amazon’s 10-K disclosure, I have updated my Amazon model. I’ll expand on the model and elaborate my thoughts behind the paywall. In addition to “Daily Dose” (yes, DAILY) like this, MBI Deep Dives publishes one Deep Dive on a publicly listed

Never Sell: Episode 13-Big Tech Earnings

For the “Never Sell” podcast, Scuttleblurb and I published a new episode on Big Tech earnings. One of the key topics that I highlighted is why I think the street is likely mismodeling Meta. We also touched on Microsoft and Amazon’s current predicament. You can listen to it here:

Some thoughts from last week

Phew! What a week. I will share some thoughts behind the paywall. In addition to “Daily Dose” (yes, DAILY) like this, MBI Deep Dives publishes one Deep Dive on a publicly listed company every month. You can find all the 64 Deep Dives here. Subscribe

Amazon 4Q'25 Update

After Meta and Alphabet’s eyebrow raising capex plan for 2026, Amazon came up with the biggest number: $200 Billion! Market basically said this in response: While market may be currently in the mood of hating large capex numbers, I remain quite optimistic that it is indeed the right strategy

Alphabet 4Q'25 Update

Alphabet came to this earnings with elevated expectations from investors. It delivered. The stock is down a bit post-earnings despite that, but it’s hard to imagine Alphabet shareholders not having a good sleep last night. Here are my highlights from the earnings. Revenue Who amongst us really thought search