MBI Deep Dives

MBI Deep Dives

Uber: The Aggregator on Trial

You can listen to the Deep Dive here The very first Deep Dive I wrote for MBI Deep Dives, back in 2020, was on Uber, and a lot has obviously changed since then. Uber in 2019 did ~$65 Billion of Gross Bookings while burning ~$4.9 Billion of Free Cash

A Portfolio Change

I know I promised an Uber Deep Dive this week, but I am pushing that to next Monday. In the meantime, I wanted to share some quick thoughts on a portfolio change I made today, which I'll discuss behind the paywall. Subscribers get the daily journal and five+

A Few Changes to My Publishing Schedule

I would like to make a few changes to my schedule. I am currently working on my Uber Deep Dive but, frankly speaking, I am further behind than I would like to be. As a result, I plan to spend next week solely on the Deep Dive, and I am

What Anthropic's 25 Gigawatts Can Earn in 2030

On Wednesday I showed what OpenAI has to believe to break even in 2030 and said I would run the same exercise for Anthropic. However, when I started working on Anthropic, I realized the relevant questions are a bit different for the company. Indeed, it was reported just yesterday that

Groceries, Aggregators, and Agents

Just over two and a half decades after Walmart was founded, the company entered the grocery industry in 1988 and then in just thirteen years after getting into this business, Walmart became the largest grocery player in the US. Grocery leadership was also a major unlock for Walmart since not

What You Have to Believe for OpenAI to Break Even in 2030

Programming Note: MBI Deep Dives will be off tomorrow, but I will be back on Friday. Yesterday I mentioned that I would publish my work on OpenAI today. Let me be clear that I have no idea what OpenAI will earn in 2030. But I wanted to get a good

My Last Financial Model

A couple of months ago, I wrote about Terence Tao’s proclamation that mathematics is evolving from an “era of proof scarcity to an era of proof abundance”. The more I use the frontier models, the more I realize this may be the eventual fate for most knowledge work itself.

Meta’s Trojan Horse for the Consumer Internet

When I wrote my “first impression of Muse” piece last week, I promised that I would write a follow-up piece on how I am using it after a month. I may still do that, but after using Muse for the last five days, I feel compelled to share my

Why “Affordable Luxury” Doesn't Compound

Programming Note: MBI Deep Dives will be off during the weekend and I will resume the daily posting cadence from Monday next week. Even though I sold my Lululemon position last year, I have to admit I don’t quite feel much relief for avoiding the 50% drawdown experienced this

Muse Implications for Consumer Internet

Since I have received several emails and messages from readers after publishing my first impression of Muse yesterday, I want to elaborate behind the paywall a bit more on how I think agents such as Muse can have an impact on some of the consumer internet companies. Subscribers get the