MBI Deep Dives

MBI Deep Dives

Amazon 4Q'25 Update

After Meta and Alphabet’s eyebrow raising capex plan for 2026, Amazon came up with the biggest number: $200 Billion! Market basically said this in response: While market may be currently in the mood of hating large capex numbers, I remain quite optimistic that it is indeed the right strategy

Alphabet 4Q'25 Update

Alphabet came to this earnings with elevated expectations from investors. It delivered. The stock is down a bit post-earnings despite that, but it’s hard to imagine Alphabet shareholders not having a good sleep last night. Here are my highlights from the earnings. Revenue Who amongst us really thought search

Insurance Brokers 4Q'25 Update

After years of steep increases, property insurance rates, especially in E&S (Excess & Surplus) and Reinsurance are falling due to a quiet hurricane season and an influx of capital. The insurance brokers, however, noted a split pricing environment. While property rates are softening (a headwind for organic growth)

The Fog of AV Economics

Thomas Reiner yesterday wrote a thoughtful piece about a key question about AV ridesharing: what should be the optimal size of AV fleet in a given area? Should it try to cater to peak demand or average demand? Reiner makes the case that “the profit-maximizing fleet size is just shy

Betting Big on Meta

I won’t burry the lede here. After updating my model on Meta following 4Q’25 earnings, I have become materially more bullish on Meta and decided to add to the stock to make it my largest position. I will elaborate more behind the paywall. In addition to “Daily Dose”

Trillion Dollar Club

A couple of weeks ago, I recorded a podcast with my friend Liberty to discuss all the companies in “trillion dollar club”. Enjoy! From Liberty’s Highlights: “At nearly two hours, this one is massive, but you know what they say: Too much of a good thing can be wonderful!

Microsoft in the "Dance Floor"

If you need any reminder how challenging active investing is, it can be humbling to know that if you bought Microsoft the day ChatGPT was launched, you would not only underperform QQQ but also underperform Alphabet (the very company the consensus assumed to be the primary “victim” of ChatGPT) by

Meta 4Q'25 Update

Admittedly, I was confused looking at the initial reaction of Meta’s earnings when the stock went down. Mr. Market promptly corrected its “mistake” later. One of the reasons I think some may have reacted negatively is the ever burgeoning capex outlook by Meta which inevitably exerts pressure on FCF.

Texas Instruments 4Q'25 Update

I owned Texas Instruments (TXN) for almost 18 months and then managed to sell what appears to be a local bottom in hindsight. Although I did re-allocate my proceeds from TXN sale to Alphabet and Meta equally, Texas Instruments performed better than either of those companies. The chart below doesn’

A "Sneaky" Bull Case for Tesla's Operating Performance?

There is perhaps hardly any stock out there which bamboozle most value investors more than Tesla. Given Tesla’s eye-watering multiple, I have seen people often mentioning Mag7 multiples, excluding Tesla. Even if I look at consensus EPS estimates in 2029, the stock currently trades at ~55x of 2029 EPS.